REPORT FROM SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE
Rainy and cold conditions are expected to set in this coming Friday and throughout the weekend over the central and south-eastern parts of the country. The provinces expected to be particularly affected include the eastern parts of the Northern and Eastern Cape, Free State, North-West, Gauteng as well as KwaZulu-Natal and the Highveld region of Mpumalanga.
Associated with these rainy conditions, localised flooding is likely to affect the agricultural sector, infrastructure and settlements over the North-West, the northern parts of the Free state and Gauteng on Friday, including the eastern parts of the Northern Cape, the northern and eastern parts of the Eastern Cape, the western parts of KwaZulu-Natal and the Mpumalanga Highveld on Saturday. Localised disruptions to beachfront activities as well as incidents of damage to coastal infrastructure may also occur along the coastal region between Port Alfred and Sodwana Bay.
Figure 1: Modelled accumulation of rain (mm) over South Africa for the next 5 days. Source: GFS model
A general clearing of rainy conditions can be expected on Sunday over the Northern Cape, the western parts of both the North-West and Free State, as well as the north-western parts of the Eastern Cape. Notwithstanding the abovementioned clearing trend from the west, occurrences of localised flooding are expected to persist on Sunday over the eastern parts of North-West, Free State and the Eastern Cape.
This wet spell will be accompanied by cold to very cold conditions over the southern and south-eastern interior of the country on Friday, spreading to the central and eastern interior by Saturday. Moreover, light snowfalls can be expected over the eastern and southern parts of Lesotho and the surrounding Drakensberg mountains on Saturday evening as well as overnight Sunday night.
Figure 2: Expected light snowfalls during Sunday 10 April 2022 over parts of Lesotho and the southern Drakensberg Mountains. Source: GFS model.
Dominant weather system:
A sharp upper-air trough will form seaward of the south-west coast of South Africa on Friday. This upper- air trough is likely to propagate north-eastwards, whilst intensifying into a cut-off low (COL) over the south-western Cape on Saturday afternoon, 9 April 2022. The COL system (which will be supported and augmented by an Atlantic Ocean High within the lower atmosphere, ridging eastwards, south of the country) is expected to affect the central, southern and south-eastern interior of South Africa, exiting the south-eastern coastline of the country by Tuesday.
Figure 3: 500hPa geopotential heights indicating the likely position of the cut-off upper air low over the western parts of the country on Saturday, 9 April 2022, as well as the location of perturbations on the downwind side of the system. Source: GFS model.
The South African Weather Service (SAWS) strongly urges the public to avoid crossing rivers and swollen streams, especially in cases where the water is more than ankle deep. SAWS also recommends moving to higher ground if rising floodwaters threaten one’s safety.
The South African Weather Service will continue to monitor any further developments relating to this weather system and will issue subsequent updates as required. Furthermore, the public are urged and encouraged to regularly follow weather forecasts on television and radio. Updated information in this regard will regularly be available at www.weathersa.co.za as well as via the SA Weather Service Twitter account @SAWeatherService
Compiled by Luthando Masimini
Editing and proofreading by Kevin Rae
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